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Molina's slam sends St.Louis past Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Yadier Molina's second career grand slam capped a six-run eighth inning to lead the St. Louis Cardinals to an 8-6 win over the Milwaukee Brewers in the opener of a three-game set.

Albert Pujols drove in a run and scored twice while Matt Holliday and Pedro Feliz each had an RBI and a run scored for the Cardinals, who have won three of their last four.

Jake Westbrook went six innings in the start and was charged with two runs on five hits with a pair of walks and strikeouts. Mitchell Boggs (2-2) got the win for tossing 1 1/3 innings while giving up a run.

"It was a great win," said St. Louis manager Tony La Russa. "They are a tough club to play here because of all that power. We got touched up at the end, but everybody got the outs that they needed."

Corey Hart hit a two-run homer and a solo shot while Rickie Weeks added a solo home run for the Brewers, who have lost six of their last seven. Yovani Gallardo threw seven innings and was charged with two runs on four hits with two walks and four strikeouts. Zach Braddock (1-2) was tagged with the loss.

"Gallardo threw the ball very well and gave us the innings that we needed," said Milwaukee manager Ken Macha. "It was a big night for Corey with the two home runs. We just didn't get the bullpen help we needed."

With the score tied in the eighth, the Cardinals surged ahead with a six-run frame.

Braddock started the frame on the mound and got the first out, but then hit Jon Jay with a pitch. Jeremy Jeffress then took over on the hill and Pujols reached base on a Casey McGehee error. Holliday then put his team on top with a single that scored Jay.

After Colby Rasmus was issued an intentional walk to load the bases, Todd Coffey took the mound and promptly gave up an RBI single to Feliz. Molina followed with a blast over the left field wall for an 8-2 lead.

The Brewers cut into the deficit in the eighth. With men on first and third and one out, McGehee singled up the middle to score Hart. After Lorenzo Cain struck out, Alcides Escobar doubled to left to score Prince Fielder and make it an 8-4 game. On the play, Holliday gunned the ball to Brendan Ryan, who took the relay and threw home to nail McGehee for the final out of the inning.

Ryan Franklin gave up a leadoff double to Jonathan Lucroy in the ninth, but then retired the next two batters. Hart, though, cut the deficit in half when he crushed a pitch well over the center-field wall. Ryan Braun then worked a walk to bring the tying run to the plate in the form of Fielder. Franklin, though, got Fielder to groundout to first base to end the game.

The Cardinals posted a 1-0 lead in the first inning as Skip Schumaker led off with a double, moved to third on a sacrifice bunt from Jay and crossed the plate on a sac fly by Pujols.

The Brewers tied the game in the third on Weeks' solo shot over the right- field wall.

Milwaukee then went ahead in the fifth on a two-out, solo shot from Hart, but the Cardinals answered in the sixth on a wild pitch from Gallardo that scored Pujols.

Game Notes

St. Louis now leads the season-series with Milwaukee, 7-6...Hart now has 27 home runs on the season...Milwaukee stranded seven men on base...Pujols has 97 RBI on the season...Kyle Lohse takes the mound for St. Louis on Tuesday and will be opposed by Chris Narveson for Milwaukee...Molina's other grand slam came this season on April 5 against Cincinnati.


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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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